Look at you getting two posts today, which we will continue until next October. It’s an exciting time to be alive. Kinda like in the 1300′s when doorknobs were invented and people no longer needed to axe down the door to enter their house. So how about those Cleveland Indians brimming with prospects? It’s the biggest Native American bounty since the original Thanksgiving. Fingers crossed these Indians aren’t practically wiped from existence, then almost 400 years later Lonnie Chisenhall‘s great-great grandniece is allowed to open a casino. Lonnie Chisenhall was called up in the middle of last season, like a firefly without a light. In his first full month, he hit two homers and .217, like a slow torch burning. In his 2nd month, he didn’t do much better, like a key that could use a little turning. Seemed like he should’ve been getting somewhere. Then in September, he hit four homers and .279. Like a madman laughing at the rain. If you knew those were Soul Asylum lyrics, pat yourself on the back…with a knife. I’ll take that September month from Chisenhall every day of the week and twice on Muesday if we can get that from him every month next year, but can we? Let’s see what we can expect of Lonnie Chisenhall in 2012 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
Chisenhall’s BABIP during his torrid-for-him month of September was .308. That’s close to doable for him, but his walk rate was pathetic last year. In 21 games in August, he didn’t walk once. His K-rate wasn’t great either. So .279 seems doable, but highly unlikely. He looks more like a .250 hitter. In September, his HR/FB was 16.0%, which is a little high for him, making 4 homers per month on the high side, too. For 2012, he’s gonna be more of a 3 to 4 homer per month guy, so you’re looking at between 18-24 homers. The Indians are saying that Jack Hannahan will compete in Spring Training for the 3rd base job with Chisenhall, but that’s just talk to motivate Chisenhall. There’s no way Jack Hannahan will win the starting job unless he brings one of his ligers into the clubhouse and releases it on Chisenhall. Since Lonnie was able to finally start to put it together in September, I’m gonna be optimistic and say he gives us 65/20/80/.250/3. Not exactly rewriting the record books, but more than serviceable if you can get him cheap in your fantasy drafts and he has some upside. Muahahahahaha! Sorry, still laughing like a madman at the rain.
We continue our 2012 fantasy baseball rankings with the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball. There’s no 2nd baseman in the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball. At least by my calculation. Some ‘perts are putting Cano in the top 10, but I see him just outside of the top 10, but then again 2nd base is packed to the rafters with production. It looks deeper than the 1st basemen pool and I’m only being half-facetious. It’s like all 2nd basemen slept at a Holiday Inn last night. There’s 15 guys I would take and if I had a middle infield spot on my roster, I’d definitely look to put a 2nd baseman in there. As with the previous ranking lists, tiers and my projections are noted. Anyway, here’s the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball:
4. Dan Uggla – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Utley (or Cuddyer, if he has eligibility). I call this tier, “I see good value. Draft one.” This tier name sounds like I’m a handicapper for horse races. Gambler’s Ruin is great on mud, put all your money on him! Member when Dan Uggla was hitting, like, .180 and it was July and you were like, “Screw this, homie! I’m going gangster on my team and trading Uggla for an Obama Chia.” Then your neighbor saw that getting dropped off at your doorstep, stole it and Uggla went on to hit in like 40 games straight. Nothing ever works out for you, huh? Now I’m Worried you left on the oven after drying your pantyhose. (That Twitter feed is a friend’s. You follow now, thank you.) Uggla wasn’t quite the hitter we saw during his hitting streak (no kidding!) but he isn’t a sub-.200 hitter either. Or is it eyether? Let’s call this whole thing off! Wait, he is a 35 homer hitter. I’ll take that and a box of Ding Dongs! And, no, box of Ding Dongs isn’t a new Timberlake/Samberg song. (Yes, that’s two days and two ding dong jokes. My cup runneth over with ding dong jokes. I am the ding dongiest!) 2012 Projections: 90/35/105/.250/3
5. Howie Kendrick – Sometimes when you go out on a limb, the limb breaks and you fall on your ass. That might happen with Kendrick in 2012, but I’m going all in. From 2010 to 2011 in 18 less games, he went from 10 homers to 18 homers and struck out more. His HR/FB rate was high and he’s injury-prone. It points to flukey. I see a guy with 15 homer power, 15 steal speed, 100 runs and 75 RBIs potential that should hit around .290. It’s okay, but what puts me over on him is he’s in the prime of his career so he should max out his power and look like Pedroia at a cheaper cost. Oh, and one thing that’s been criminally under-reported, the Angels added Pujols. You think someone would’ve talked about that. 2012 Projections: 100/18/70/.290/15
6. Brandon Phillips – Joey Votto’s gonna win the MVP and Brandon Phillips is going to be hoisted onto Jay Bruce’s shoulders next October with the team dedicating their World Series victory to their former pitching coach, Dick Pole. Just so they can see people on Twitter snicker at his mention. That’s how I see things playing out. Phillips won’t be their regular season hero; he’ll be a piece. The wily vet that plays 150 games a year and gets all those counting stats and has some power and speed that people credit more for their clubhouse leadership. Whatever, B.P. is still greasing up some decent stats for his position. 2012 Projections: 90/20/85/.275/17
7. Chase Utley – Nah, he’s not winning the MVP again. Well, I guess anything’s possible if he’s wearing one of Ryan Braun’s Ed Hardy t-shirts, but it seems like the best is behind him like J. Lo. Then throw in you have no idea how long Ryan Howard is going to be out, then throw in Utley’s inability to stay healthy, then throw in his pomade, then throw in a leprechaun’s toenail and the steam that rises from the brew you threw all that in reads, “Utley should be avoided.” Now what if I said I didn’t agree? He’s never had a season of 120+ games where he’s been useless. Granted, getting to 120 games has been an issue, but we knew going into last year he wasn’t going to be right. When he did come back, his speed was fine. Like he was never hurt. His power was off, but so was his homers per fly ball. His average was off, but so was his luck. He’s going to get you 2nd to 3rd round numbers at a much cheaper price than he usually is. BTW, if he’s bad this year, his career’s in trouble. I think he knows that too. 2012 Projections: 80/20/85/.280/15
7 1/4. Michael Young – Only has 14 games at 2nd so he may not have eligibility in all leagues. To see Young’s projections go to the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.
8. Ben Zobrist – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Weeks. I call this tier, “Others are taking these guys before me.” I really don’t like Zobrist. His stats are just too flaky for my tastes. One year he hits .297 then .238 then .269. Then he hits 27 homers then 10 then 20. “Hey, fella, how about you just hit 17 homers and stop confusing Grey?!” That’s you in the first row behind the Rays’ dugout because you’re protecting my honor. Thx, btw! (Don’t you love when someone abbreviates thanks as thx? Gee, thanks so much for showing me your appreciation by almost writing a WHOLE SIX LETTER WORD!) I’m ranking Zobrist later than most ‘perts because I don’t want him, but if he fell to me I would take him because he seems like he’s capable of a 15/15 season. Plus or minus 15 homers and steals. Yeah, he’s all over the map. 2012 Projections: 75/17/90/.255/17
9. Rickie Weeks – Stop me if you’ve heard this before– Stop! I haven’t said anything yet, Random Italicized Voice. I’ve heard, “Stop me if you’ve heard this before” before. Here’s the games played for Weeks over his career — 96, 95, 118, 129, 37, 160, 118. Throw out 37 and 160 and on average he plays in 118 games. Or maybe that’s the median. Or the mean. I don’t know. What I do know is he can’t stay healthy. He can repeat his power output from last year and chuck in about 10 steals if he’s healthy, but that “if” is the size of Gilbert Grape’s mom. 2012 Projections: 65/18/50/.260/10
10. Danny Espinosa – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Kelly Johnson. I call this tier, “Shine’s off these guys, but I like them. Even if they might hit .240 collectively.” At 24 years old, Espinosa hit 21 homers and stole 17 bases. That’s the good news. The very good news is he can hit more homers and steal more bases. The so-so news is it might not be much more of either. The bad news is he hit .236. The not good or not bad news is his luck was neutral. The “Is this really even news anymore?” news is Espinosa won’t ever hit for much of an average without luck. The last bit of news is I’m not wearing pants. 2012 Projections: 80/24/90/.240/19
11. Aaron Hill – Here’s what I said towards the end of last year, “Hill looked to be an average issue hitter that could at least give you power. Not this year. His power completely evaporated. Oddly enough, he doubled his line drive rate from 2010 and lowered his K-rate. In short (which I only say after going long), Hill’s season made no sense. Seriously, I can’t make heads or tails of it. Yes, even in hindsight it’s not 20/20. It will take some brass ones to go all in on Hill again next year, but I’m leaning that way right now.” And that’s me quoting me! Now, looking at Hill, I’m still no cyclops with a monocle. What we do know is he hit .315 in Arizona in the 33 games after he was traded. It’s something! I don’t get where those 21 steals came from last year, but if it was some kind of deal with the devil, he forgot to specify to leave his power alone and the devil duped him. You duping devil! 2012 Projections: 70/18/80/.265/15
12. Kelly Johnson – After a trade that sent Hill to the D-Backs and Johnson to the Jays, these two will be forever linked. Or just for right now in the rankings. Either way, let’s pretend we’re in the first semester of our junior year of high school and we’re taking the SATs. The final question will send you to either Brown or nowhere because you refuse to have a safety school. Question: In 2008, Kelly Johnson hit .287. In 2009, he hit .224. In 2010, he hit .284. In 2011, he hit .222. What will he hit in 2012? You know the answer; Brown’s within reach! You say he’ll hit around .280 and… You’re wrong. You then go on a 15-month bender that finds you waiting tables on an over-60 cruise ship and making out with grandmothers. His good/bad alternating averages don’t mean anything, except it does tell us it’s not out of the realm of possibility for Johnson to hit something respectable. 2012 Projections: 80/20/70/.265/14
13. Jason Kipnis – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Ackley. I call this tier, “Sleepers or guys that are overdrafted depending on how smart your leaguemates think they are.” What I mean by the tier name is in leagues with people who prep the day before and just fly by the seat of their pants, this tier probably won’t be that known unless you’re in Cleveland, Seattle or Oakland. In leagues where owners started prepping last November, there’s giant flashing lights on this tier’s players to the point where people will probably reach for them way too early. As for Jason Kipnis, I already went over my Kipnis 2012 fantasy. I wrote it enclosed with a giant heart on a bathroom stall. 2012 Projections: 80/14/60/.255/12
14. Jemile Weeks – Member when 2nd base was a speed position? Was before Bret Boone started frosting his hair. All of these 2nd basemen that are on the scene today probably idolized Boone and his frosted tips. They probably even went as far to emulate him and frosted their hair too. When Jemile frosted his hair, his classmates probably called him Sisqo, which is downright embarrassing, so he decided to rebel against the power 2nd baseman and work on his speed. Or not. Simply a theory. Weeks reminds me a bit of Luis Castillo. That takes some air out of your Jemile Weeks balloon, huh? Hey, Castillo had some good years. 2012 Projections: 90/3/50/.265/30
15. Dustin Ackley – I’m having a real hard time understanding the hype on Ackley. To the point where I’m not drafting him unless he falls pretty far. He’s never hit more than 9 homers at any level of professional ball or stole more than 8 bases. Granted, these were abbreviated seasons, but he’s also going to be playing his home games in a terrible hitting park. I’m gonna let someone else take the chance that he shows his ceiling of 15 homers and 15 steals while expecting he shows something closer to… 2012 Projections: 80/12/55/.265/12
16. Ryan Roberts – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Beckham. I call this tier, “Post-hype and no hype guys. I guess I’ll draft them, but they’d have to be super cheap.” Ryan Roberts reads to me like a Ryan Ludwick/Casey McGehee-type. Never considered much of anything, then they explode on the scene at a late age, then they return to Back To Wherever You Came From-ville (which has higher real estate prices than I’m So Outta Here-ville cause of the influx of has-beens). There should be a glossary term for these type of no hype players that only have one good year. Suggest in the comments. 2012 Projections: 55/13/65/.245/15
17. Neil Walker – This guy isn’t far off from Ryan Roberts. They’re pretty much flip-floppable (Made Up Word of the Day!). But since Roberts just came off a better season, I put them in this order. Could see Walker outperforming him in 2012, but not by much since Walker doesn’t have huge power or speed. Not that Roberts does either… Whatever, I don’t like either, stop arguing with me! 2012 Projections: 70/12/80/.270/7
18. Gordon Beckham – Something that hasn’t been reported (or at least by me) is: Could Ozzie leaving town have a positive impact on some White Sox players? You know, the guys that he used to ball-bust. I wouldn’t be shocked if Beckham comes around as a post-hype sleeper just to prove Ozzie wrong. Am I betting a whole lot that that (stutterer!) is gonna happen? Oh, hells no! Beckham just came off a season where 21% of all of his fly balls were infield pop-ups. That’s terrible. In my opinion (and, really, if you don’t want my opinion, you’re probably reading the wrong site), a hitter can’t make worst contact than an infield pop. By drafting Beckham, you’re basically saying that his last two years were a fluke and he’s going to fix everything. Put the chances of that happening in one hand and the chances of it not happening in the other hand and you have two empty hands. Can’t really weigh chances. Maybe you shouldn’t have quit college to become a scale. 2012 Projections: 55/14/70/.260/5
19. Ryan Raburn – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Roberts. I call this tier, “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice and shame on you again. I’m good at displacing blame.” Bill James still believes. He has Raburn’s 2012 projections down for 18/4. Last year was the chance for Raburn to become relevant. He’s going to be 31 years old for the majority of the 2012 season. I got better things to do than draft a 31-year-old player who has never shown much of anything. Not to mention, there’s been talk of him blahtooning with Ramon Santiago. That’s nice, have fun! 2012 Projections: 40/12/50/.275/3
20. Brian Roberts – I’m sure Brian Roberts never thought he’d be passed on the rankings by a name that people used to mistakenly call him. Here’s the world’s smallest violin. Here’s me putting the world’s smallest violin on eBay. Here’s someone Buying It Now for one cent and playing it just for Brian Roberts. 2012 Projections: 65/5/35/.260/12
After the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names but these stand out, for better or worse:
Daniel Murphy – I left him off the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball and that top 20 went to, like, 30. Honestly, seriously, Cliff Lee, I can’t imagine drafting Murphy anywhere. If he hits in the beginning of the year, you can pick him off waivers in most leagues as a hot schmotato. 2012 Projections: 75/12/60/.275/5
Sean Rodriguez – I almost feel the same way about Sean-Rod as I do with Raburn. Go reread Raburn’s blurb in the passive voice. The one positive on Sean-Rod that Raburn lacks is age. Sean-Rod will only be 27 this April. If there’s no one left on the board, I’d take the flyer and hope Sean-Rod does something. His K-rate tells me he probably won’t. 2012 Projections: 55/14/65/.230/10
Jose Altuve – I haven’t written a Jose Altuve sleeper post yet, but my Magic Eight Ball says, “There’s a chance you write a sleeper post on Jose Altuve.” When I bought this Magic Eight Ball in 1989, I never understood why it kept saying that. In the minors, Altuve showed he could get to double digit power and low 20′s steal-speed. I’ve seen worse. You feel me?! If you do, could you stop? I hate looking at Astros hitters for anything other than which pitchers to stream against them, but Altuve looks like he could have some sneaky value. Now to figure out why my Magic Eight Ball keeps telling me to write a sleeper post for Ken Griffey Jr. Jr. Jr. 2012 Projections: 80/12/40/.265/24 (<–crazy optimistic, but whatevs)
The top 10 and top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball are in the bag, along with the top 20 catchers and your receipt for a $30 massage valued at $50. Thanks, Groupon! Today, Razzhands, we look at the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball. All this shizz can be found under the 2012 fantasy baseball rankings. Don’t believe me? Click the link. This top 20 list of 1st basemen is bursting at the seams like you at a Hometown Buffet. Speaking of gorging yourself, I’d like a top 1st baseman on my team in 2012, but it’s a little different year than last year. There’s actually only 5 top first basemen then caveats on number 6 (Te(i)x) through 9, then there’s some interesting flyers a bit later. I have a feeling 2013′s rankings are going to see major shifts with some guys that are lower on this ranking sheet moving up. Should be a fun year for first basemen and one where you can take a bit more risk than previous years. This list will get additional 1st basemen added to it in the way of sleeper posts. As with the other rankings, the first basemen are broken up into tiers with my projections included. Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball:
6. Mark Teixeira – See top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball for Mark Teixeira’s projections. This is actually a new tier. This tier goes from here until Michael Young. I call this tier, “Caterpillars. Tier name will be explained in the Young blurb. Feel free to read Young’s blurb then return here. Hey, back already?! Awesome! I missed you. Do you enjoy cuddling?”
7. Paul Konerko – He’s been wildly consistent. In 2008 when he hit only 22 homers, it looks like the anomaly. If I were to say 2012 is the year he gets old and it all falls apart, I’d just be guessing. Last year he hit hardly any doubles, more line drives and singles, but he’s also getting smarter cutting his K-rate and increasing his walk rate. The biggest hurdle Konerko is going to have this year is keeping his will to play as the team folds on Opening Day. Maybe Hawk can work in some of his positivism in the negativity. “This is the fastest a team has ever been out of contention! You can put it on the board… We gone!” 2012 Projections: 85/29/100/.290
8. Lance Berkman – Let’s see if you can pick out the number that doesn’t belong, these are his homer totals from 2009 to 2011 — 25, 14, 31. If you said 14, you’re a believer. Feel free to draft Berkman. If you said 31, you’re in my camp. We will not be drafting Berkman. If you said 27, that wasn’t a choice. Berkman didn’t necessarily have an odd year for homers per fly balls. He made solid contact, reducing his ground balls, but he’s 36 years old and missing Pujols. That’s enough for me to avoid. 2012 Projections: 80/24/95/.275/3
9. Michael Young – This tier is filled with some older shorties, huh? Go, shorty, it’s your 35th birthday; we gonna party like it’s your 35th birthday! As I kinda said in the opening paragraph, the 1st basemen in 2012 are about to go caterpillar up in here and morph into a butterfly, but with that butterfly emerging from its cocoon Don Ameche-style, it needs to shed its caterpillar skin (can you tell I did well in my college science courses?). This tier is gonna leave behind some caterpillar skin that will be released into the garden and turn into a new plant and/or Eric Hosmer. (Again, not a science major.) To explain all of this without the confusing metaphor, guys in this tier are getting old and will make way for guys in the next tier for next year. As for Young, I don’t like him because he only gives average, and, while that’s been consistently solid in his career, he still got lucky last year and he’s due to hit a lot closer to .300 than .340. Projections: 75/15/90/.310/5
10. Carlos Santana – Here comes the fun! Can you feel the excitement? It’s like that time we got together and did the crab circle dance in the pool in Cabo San Lucas and all our roommates were there except Zach and Ashley — but who needs them anyway?! This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Butler. I call this tier, “The crab circle in Cabo San Lucas.” Is that too specific a reference? You guys and three girl readers get it. See the top 20 catchers for 2012 fantasy baseball to see Carlos Santana’s projections.
11. Eric Hosmer – I’m ignoring sophomore jinxes like I ignored when my whole sophomore class saw me get depantsed and I had on dirty tightie-whities. I continue to stress that they were once all brown underwear that got bleached. Hosmer is going to be special, and even if it’s not this year, he’s going to hold trade value through the season unless his bottom really falls out, which I don’t envision happening. His commitment to stealing around ten bases will keep him from totally flopping. He will be Joey Votto-lite this year. How lite is the only question. I don’t think it’ll be that lite. BTW, you know who’s Billy Butler-lite? Kirstie Alley. 2012 Projections: 85/25/95/.280/10
12. Michael Morse – I think Morse just had his best season, but I also don’t think he’s gonna fall like, say, Ryan Ludwick of a few years ago, to mention a player that was old for a prospect, broke out then went back to obscurity. Speaking of which, when you get robbed in a parking garage and the security guard tells the police they didn’t hear anything, you tell them they’re more like obscurity! Store it away for when it’s applicable. Morse had the trappings* of a breakout but his health always got in the way. I’m excited to watch the Nats this year and Morse should be smack dab in the middle of it. *I have no idea if I used trappings right but it sounded pretty cool the way I just threw it out there, right? 2012 Projections: 80/27/90/.275/3
13. Michael Cuddyer – Gets away from Hubert H. Homerfree Dome and goes to Coors. Boom goes the dynamite! Or does it? Cuddyer just had a solid season, and terrific when compared to the team around him. Jack Wilson would’ve looked good in that Minnesota mucky muck last year. Cuddyer hits a ton of ground balls and he’s not a huge homer threat. I’d say if he repeats his 2011, it’s a win for him and his fantasy owners, especially since he has 2nd base eligibility in some leagues (17 games). Check your rules first before you draft him for 2nd, then think about how you’re checking rules for fantasy baseball. And you wonder why you have no success with the ladies. 2012 Projections: 75/22/85/.275/5
14. Mark Reynolds – His K-rate is kinda comical. He’s a terrible real baseball player. But real baseball is for real athletes. What kind of crap is that?! Give me a computer, an ergonomic chair and some Doritos, I’m playing fantasy baseball! As long as Mini Donkey continues to hit 35 homers and steal 7-10 bases, he has solid fantasy value, just don’t draft Krispie Young, Adam Dunn or any other low average guys with him. Actually, don’t draft Adam Dunn at all. 2012 Projections: 75/35/90/.230/7
15. Adam Lind – The reason why I still go back to Lind no matter how many times he kicks my metaphorical puppy is because he’s capable of 35+ homers. Also, he got a bad rap in 2010 for being a guy that comes with a poor average, but he’s not that, y’all! He’s around a .260 guy with neutral luck. That’s a’ight, and a’ight is better than just a’ight but not quite a’ight a’ight. Want a silly prediction that has no basis in science or fact? Lind’s gonna be a top three finisher in 2012 for MVP. 2012 Projections: 90/32/105/.270 (<–crazy optimistic, but whatevs)
15 1/2. Billy Butler – I gave Butler a half ranking because he only has 11 games at 1st base. In Yahoo leagues, you can place The Moob Man at 1st. I’d use two hands so one moob doesn’t feel neglected. Yes, Butler’s in the exciting tier, but I worry that Butler will only get 17 or less homers with a bad case of blimpotence. But II, The Return of But, at 26 years old I think we can trust he’ll hover closer to 20 ding dongs. Butler, “Did someone say ding dongs?!” 2012 Projections: 90/20/100/.300
16. Ryan Howard – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the end of the list. I call this tier, “Some major question marks, but a chance for nice dividends.” Howard will move in the rankings at some point in the preseason when we know exactly when he’s gonna return. If he’s back by the end of April, he hits 25-30 homers and is worth stashing. If he’s not due back until midseason, I wouldn’t even bother drafting him and would drop him off this list completely. I don’t believe in DL’ing players for months in redraft leagues. For example, think about how many years you drafted Brandon Webb waiting for him to return from injury. Yeah, that worked out well. 2012 Projections: 70/28/100/.260 (returning on May 1st)
18. Ike Davis – Last year, Ike took so many hits on the DL; somewhere Tina Turner was smiling. Davis says his ankle will be good to go for Spring Training. I say, just keep him away from the Mets doctors. From this tier, I’d say Davis has the biggest chance to shoot up the rankings for next year. Or he could have one setback and miss another three months. 2012 Projections: 85/22/90/.280
19. Mark Trumbo – When I went over Albert Pujols’s signing, I also covered Trumbo’s question mark. As long as Abreu, Double I and Kendrys are shooting the shizz and talking about the good old times, Trumbo’s either playing 3rd or in trouble of losing playing time. 3rd base would be great, but his defense might give Scioscia the gas face. I really can’t see someone who gave Jeff Mathis 1360 plate appearances in 5 years playing Trumbo at third. That’s a huge question mark. If Trumbo can get 500 plate appearances, then I’d happily draft him. Remember a platoon player at catcher is doable for fantasy, but at 1st or even at corner you need stats. Projections: 60/25/75/.260/7 (500 PAs)
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20. Paul Goldschmidt – I already went over my Paul Goldschmidt fantasy. I wrote it while rooting for Garfield from Parking Wars to boot a car. 2012 Projections: 75/27/85/.245/7
After the top 20 1st basemen, there’s a lot of names but these stand out:
Kendrys Morales – Might not be a bigger question mark on this entire list. Ryan Howard could be out for a while, but if he returns, you should get decent production. Kendrys might return and still be crizzap. Or he might return and platoon with Abreu or Trumbo or Wells. Or he might return and be valuable. You got more variables than an episode of Mythbusters. Boom! I’m bigger on basic cable than Chumlee! 2012 Projections: 65/22/75/.290
Justin Morneau – This is one question mark that I’m not drafting anywhere. This schmohawk can come to my house and make me a perfectly medium-rare steak with the most amazing compound butter and I won’t go near him because, after last year, his steak will probably give me an immediate heart attack. 2012 Projections: 60/17/75/.285
Gaby Sanchez – He (she?) can give you modest power and solid counting stats. Plus, you can pretend you have a girl on your team. You ask why he’s not ranked and I answer that he is. He’s ranked just after Morneau. Him and Morneau are a bit of a toss-up, but Morneau has an outside chance at bigger power numbers. Gaby has a better chance of actually playing a full season. 2012 Projections: 65/20/85/.265/3
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Freddie Freeman – I don’t look forward to drafting Freeman. So much so, I won’t draft him. So much so much so, I didn’t even rank him. He’s not ranked. He’s just blurbed here. He’s too much James Loney for my taste. He has a slightly off year on power and you’re gonna be lucky to get 17 homers. Belch called and said burp. 2012 Projections: 60/19/75/.280/3
Yonder Alonso – I took all the prospect reports on Alonso and put through my supercomputer and out came, “Should develop into a 20+ homer hitter with a great eye. Padres TV can save time by eliminating instant replay because he runs like he’s in slow mo.” I liked Yonder a lot more when he was on the Reds with no starting job than on the Padres with a starting job. It’s just so hard to get excited about a hitter’s upside in Petco. 2012 Projections: 55/16/70/.280
Justin Smoak – I’m letting someone else take the Smoak gamble this year. Until he hits 25+ homers, I don’t want to mess with his .240-ish average. Call me crazy. You, “Crazy.” 2012 Projections: 55/18/65/.245
Carlos Pena – Looking for someone this year that can do what Adam Dunn did last year? Look no further! He signed with the Rays, but it doesn’t matter. He is what he is everywhere he plays. I will now slap myself hard across the face for saying a variation of “it is what it is.” 2012 Projections: 55/25/75/.210
Adam Dunn – Everyone seems to think Dunn is not, um, done. Correction: Everyone that did not own him last year. I guess they want a piece of the frustration that others felt last year. That’s like standing at the craps table and watching roll after roll where people lose and you’re like, “Now is the time to get in!” No, it’s not. There’s no reason why the table is going to turn for the better. The big-bellied age quickly and poorly. Don’t go near Dunn just because you lucked out not owning him last year. And, if you did own him last year and want more, then you’re like Homer grabbing the donut no matter how many times the electrical current shocks him. 2012 Projections: 55/22/80/.220 (<–actually optimistic)
Anthony Rizzo – Because I couldn’t end the post on a sour note with Adam Dunn, here’s R to the izzo. I already went over my Anthony Rizzo 2012 fantasy. I wrote it while huffing. It was also written before the trade to the Cubs, so the end about how I wanna take a chainsaw to Petco is irrelevant. I don’t think we’ll see Rizzo until June at the earliest so in redraft leagues, I’d ignore him, but in keeper leagues I’d stash him. He could hit 25 homers as soon as next year. If he breaks camp with the Cubs, then it’s on like Steve Wiebe playing Donkey Kong. 2012 Projections: 30/10/45/.250/4 (in 300 ABs)
Brandon Belt – Okay, one more! This is it though. If Belt were guaranteed everyday playing time, I’d place him between Napoli and Davis. Around 16 and a half. Belt is capable of 25/10/.280, which would have him poised to be a top 5 1st baseman next year. The problem is Bruce Bochy has a gigantic head, but a very small brain. Hopefully he realizes Belt ties the entire Giants outfit together. 2012 Projections: 70/24/80/.280/10 (in 500 ABs)
The Cubs’ MLB-ready talent doesn’t extend too far beyond Anthony Rizzo and Brett Jackson. A few relief prospects and a backup catcher could crack the big league roster, but there aren’t a slew of guys here who are ready to contribute in the majors. Even so, Rizzo and Jackson alone are sufficient to generate fantasy buzz. And behind them, the Cubs have youthful types like Matt Szczur, Javier Baez and Dillon Maples.
Of all their additions this offseason, none is more important than Theo. The Cubs are finally setting smart, long-term goals through emphasizing scouting and player development. They’ve partnered with Bloomberg Sports, who will develop custom information systems and support data-driven decision-making. They’re dumping Major League dead weight and they’re building from within. They seem to be heading in the right direction.
Arizona Fall League Players – Mesa Solar Sox
Jeff Beliveau (LHP); Chris Carpenter (RHP); Andrew Cashner (RHP); Marcus Hatley (RHP); Trey McNutt (RHP); Junior Lake (SS); D.J. LeMahieu (2B); Josh Vitters (OF); Brett Jackson (OF)
Although Soriano and Byrd remain, it seems only a matter of time before one (or both) is shipped elsewhere, making room for Jackson in the Chicago outfield. Grey previews Jackson here. It’s a great write-up mostly because of the dong joke (dong jokes get me every time), but I tend to agree with the non-dong-related content. I just used the word “dong” four times while discussing Brett Jackson. That places me second all-time behind Phil Rogers.
Grey discusses Donkey Kong Jr.’s 2012 outlook here. Rizzo, of course, now has a new team, a new ballpark and new teammates. Long-term, the new environment certainly helps Rizzo. But for 2012, I don’t think much needs to be changed from Grey’s projection, although 25 homers is probably a fair assessment, now. Rizzo will likely begin 2012 in Iowa. Bryan LaHair will hold his place in Chicago in the meantime. I expect Rizzo up by midseason.
There’s a good chance he’ll serve as Geovany Soto’s backup in 2012. .238 ISO at Triple-A in 2011 reflects nice pop for a catcher, even in the PCL. Soto, like many other Cubs regulars, is a trade candidate and Castillo would step into a starting role should a trade occur. He’ll be worth adding across all formats if he’s ever getting regular AB’s.
I suspect that Theo will, at some point, be shopping Marmol. That is, if he isn’t already. And if the Cubs are so lucky to unload their closer, Dolis seems like a good candidate to take on the role, as his high 90s sinking fastball can be utterly unhittable. He’ll likely start 2012 at Triple-A where he’ll work on secondary pitches and overall command, but he’ll be up before long.
Carpenter is a power righty who projects as a setup man. When his command is with him, he’s tough to hit, but he has struggled in that regard. Carpenter is pretty much a two-pitch guy with a high 90s fastball and high 80s slider. He should be ready to join the Cubs bullpen full-time in 2012.
Vitters moderate improvement at Double-A in 2011, slashing .283/.322/.448. But it’s still hardly the production that the Cubs would like to see out of their 3rd overall pick in 2007. At just 22, there is still time for him to polish his tools and start progressing, but he’ll need to begin doing so quickly.
McNutt struggled at Tennessee in 2011 and is probably in for a return to Double-A in 2012. For a power pitcher with a plus fastball and plus curve, it’s concerning that his strikeout ratios aren’t at all impressive (6.2 K/9 in 2011). A prospect with this kind of stuff shouldn’t be ignored, however. If he can improve his command, the ratios will fall in line and he could find himself pitching at Wrigley come September.
Jackson’s had a rough couple of years at Triple-A, but the Cubs haven’t yet lost faith. An initiative of Epstein’s has been to glean his rotation from a hoard of Major League-caliber pitching. Jackson still has the stuff to be included in that hoard.
Went over the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball and top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball. Now, friends, it’s time for the top 20 catchers for 2012 fantasy baseball. In the past, the top 20 catchers were the glass of warm milk right before you went to sleep. “Hey, I just drafted A.J. Pierzynski!” Snooze. “I love Kurt Suzuki this year!” Yawn. But this year, for the first time in a while, there’s actually some catchers that could get your nethers moving. I don’t draft top catchers in one catcher leagues. Because I ignore the top catchers doesn’t mean I’m starting the top 20 catcher list at number twenty-one (Carlos Ruiz? Belch.); some of you might want to know the top catchers. You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make them draft Chris Iannetta. In two catcher leagues, catchers are a little more valuable, but I’d still prefer to avoid them. You can see other top 20 lists for 2012 fantasy baseball under 2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings. Listed along with these catchers are my 2012 projections for each player and where the tiers begin and end. Anyway, here’s the top 20 catchers for 2012 fantasy baseball:
1. Carlos Santana – This is the first tier. This tier goes from here until Mike Napoli. I call this tier, “You wanna draft a top catcher? Be my guest!” Last year, The Supernatural hit 27 homers. Makes sense. He stole 5 bags. Sounds about right. He hit .239. Huh? Does not compute. Must investigate. His walk rate tanked from 19.3% to 14.7% and his strikeout rate jumped from 15.1% to 20.2%. He was a bit unlucky, but his average can’t be explained away by that. His line drive rate fell, ground ball rate shot up and his infield flies went up. The assumption around most parts are he’s going to repeat his homers, counting stats and bounce back in the average department in a big way. He’s talented and young enough for that to happen, but I wouldn’t wager on it. This is also a whole lot of hot air cause I’d take his last year with a small bump on average and be more than happy. That’s if I were to draft Santana, which I would not unless he fell. I don’t draft top catchers. 2012 Projections: 80/25/90/.260/5
2. Brian McCann – The string of me ranking McCann first overall for catchers has come to an end. Trust me, I tried to justify moving him up for longer than I’d care to admit. Okay, I’ll admit I only thought it over for three minutes. But those three minutes were underwater so it felt a lot longer. What ended up having me leave Carlos Santana above McCann is Santana is younger and has already hit more homers in one season than McCann ever has. Now, the one thing that has me still as a non-apologetic McCann apologist is he’s only 28 years old and, deep in my loins, I really believe McCann’s gonna hit 30 homers one of these years, and if it’s gonna be any year it may as well be his 28-year-old season, and this is the longest run-on sentence ever, according to the Guinness Book of World Records, I checked. 2012 Projections: 70/25/85/.275/3
3. Matt Wieters – At some point last year I felt as if people weren’t appreciating Wieters, and I began to like him. It’s tough always swimming against the tide! Unlike Santana, Wieters actually cut his K-rate and was a bit unlucky to end up with only a .262 average. He made more solid (solider?) contact last year pushing up his line drive rate while cutting his ground balls. To throw a random name at you, I think Wieters outperforms Ike Davis in 2012. To throw a more random name out at you — Mitzi Gaynor. 2012 Projections: 80/24/85/.280
4. Mike Napoli – I hope Mike appreciates I was here for him even when his own manager didn’t want to play him. When someone needs a makeover, I simply have to takeover. Nothing is gonna stop Napoli from being pop-ewe-ler…LAR! That was for our three girl readers. If any of you ladies like mustaches, dial 1-800-G-R-E-Y-S-T-U-D. With that said (here comes the negative), Napoli just had his best season. It was a good one too. I’m happy for him. I’m happy for his mom’s nipples. Still doesn’t change the fact that I need to think about 2012 and not 2011. The power shouldn’t fall off the map like the earth is flat, but 30 homers is the ceiling. The bigger problem is his average. The only time he ever had more than 500 plate appearances in a season he hit .238. Sadly, that’s repeatable for him. 2012 Projections: 60/25/70/.250/3
5. Buster Posey – This is the next tier. This tier goes from here until Jesus Montero. I call this tier, “They could be the top catchers, but they’re not. Go figure!” From early mock drafts that I’ve seen (I’ve looked y’all!), Posey’s still being overdrafted. My man could miss three seasons and still get drafted high. You know, like Joe Mauer. Posey does seem like the only thing holding him back is avoiding freak injuries (no connection to Lincecum). But, you know what, I’d like to see him avoid these freak injuries prior to me drafting him anywhere near where he’s going. 2012 Projections: 65/20/75/.300
6. Alex Avila – I expect he’ll have the same exact year in 2012 as he had in 2011. Yay. Moving on. Okay, I’ll say more. As my life coach tells me, expectations lead to disappointment. So my expectations are Avila will repeat last year, but he’s also very young (25). He only has one and three-quarters of a season in the majors. So does that make him a super sophomore? Well, hopefully he doesn’t have a super sophomore slump. See what I did there? Don’t light that match, I’m cooking with gas! 2012 Projections: 60/19/75/.280/3
7. Joe Mauer – People who still draft this guy high are either more trusting than me or idiots. It’s well established at this point he’s never repeating his year of 28 homers from 2009. Frankly, I’d like to see him hit 10 homers again, and don’t call me Frank Lee. 2012 Projections: 80/10/85/.310/3
8. Miguel Montero – What separates Miguel Montero from Jesus Montero? M-I-G-U-E-L. C’mon, that was easy. Oh, and upside. If you don’t want to take the chance on Jesus’s ability to walk on water and prefer the safer bet, I could see just going for the less flashy Montero. 2012 Projections: 60/17/75/.270
9. Jesus Montero – I had already went over my Jesus Montero 2012 fantasy. It went something like this blah blah blah I’m smart blah blah blah I’m smart. Now the post reads like I’m the King of Wishful Thinking after Cashman told him to Go West. (There’s a terrible 90′s pop song pun in there. I apologize.) The trade of Montero/Pineda wasn’t great for either player’s fantasy value. Though it’ll turn out worse for Pineda in the short term. For Montero, the M’s have a whole lot fewer DH/catcher options so this should actually help him retain (gain?) catcher eligibility a lot easier. It’s going to hurt his power a tad. In the Yankees lineup, I had his projections as 70/20/85/.290. With 677 ABs in the leadoff spot, Ichiro only had 80 runs, so you can see Montero’s counting stats are gonna take a hit. Also, Safeco, like all -co parks, is no hitter haven. So you’re going to get a guy that actually can play catcher for fantasy but will have less production. (Note: He may not have catcher eligibility to start the year, so be very, very careful. Or not. Your choice. I do think he gets the eligibility quickly on the M’s though.) 2012 Projections: 55/17/70/.285
10. Geovany Soto – This is the next tier. This tier goes from here until Arencibia. I call this tier, “Low averages and catnip for kidnappers, but I’ll draft them.” Seriously, are the good catchers going to go on forever? How deep is this mother-effin’ position this year? It’s a brand new day, Sting. “Get your cousins and marry them cause catchers are breeding up in here like rabbits!” That’s the guy at your draft talking who you can’t believe you were once close friends with. I’m getting slightly tired of trusting Soto, but he comes at a decent price and I feel like there’s gotta be one season in his bat of neutral luck where he hits for a decent-enough average and power. Why not this year? Then we can all say Theo Epstein was the reason and Michael Lewis can write a book about it. 2012 Projections: 60/18/75/.260
11. Wilson Ramos – Okay, stop with all these catchers. My heart can’t handle it. They’re all so beautiful. If you can’t tell, I’m drafting a catcher from this tier if things work out the way they should at drafts. Last year, Ramos hit 15 homers but that was in only 113 games/389 at-bats. Extra 100 ABs shouldn’t be hard to come by with a few extra dingers, but I do think Ramos’s owners will not only need to wear ski masks, but will need to set him and forget him as learned in The Ron Popeil School of Catcher Management. 2012 Projections: 55/18/70/.270
12. J.P. Arencibia – You win, catchers! You are one sexy position this year. It’s like I’m looking at you in a red-lit room in Amsterdam and can’t decide which one of you I want to screw me. J.P. which stands for “Just the facts, Paul” looks like a young Napoli. Now if only his manager would bench him for four of five days the circle will be complete. Arencibia probably won’t hit above .240 (his K-rate was 27.4%; that’s crazy terrible), but if we join hands and pray maybe, just maybe, he can hit .245. 2012 Projections: 50/21/70/.235
13. Devin Mesoraco – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Suzuki. I call this tier, “Sexy names with no track record and unsexy names with track records.” Devin’s one of those sexy names I mentioned about fifteen words ago. I already went over my Devin Mesoraco 2012 fantasy. I wrote it while picking lint from between my toes. 2012 Projections: 55/18/65/.280 (<–Optimistic, but whatever)
14. Salavador Perez – He will only be 21 years old to start the season. At catcher, there’s an old credo that I just made up right now that maybe people say but I’m not aware of it. It goes something like this, “Catchers take a few years to get used to catching and hitting at the major league level. It’s not an easy position to just jump into.” Wearing a pithy helmet with that one, I tell ya. So, as a 21-year-old, you’re going to have some growing pains with Perez. Incredibly, he has been playing pro ball since 2007 and he makes solid contact. Could I have ranked Yadier here instead? Sure, but what fun is that? 2012 Projections: 50/10/65/.280
15. Jarrod Saltalamacchia – I like to think Saltymochachino is a nice bridge between the sexy names in this tier and the unsexy names. I’m being too generous. He’s not sexy. Saltymochachino’s had 5 years to be sexy and he still looks like Phyllis Diller first thing in the morning. Last year his K-rate was so absurdly bad (30.8%) that he shouldn’t have a starting job. As of this writing (around December 8th at 4:23 PM), he still did. Holy crap, it’s now December 12th at 5:35 PM! Damn, I have to work on typing faster. Wait, now it’s December 13th and Shoppach just landed in Boston. Maybe slow typing isn’t bad after all! Kelly Shoppach will steal time from Salty, but for now Salty looks good for some cheap power and maybe he’ll luck into a decent average. I mean, Napoli did hit .320 last year. In. Sane. (Yeah, I did that douchey one word into two sentences thing.) 2012 Projections: 45/15/60/.220
16. Ryan Doumit – And just like that the catchers get even less sexier. Wha’ happened?! I went over my Ryan Doumit 2012 fantasy already. I wrote it on the wall of my cell. If Doumit can scrounge together 500 plate appearances, he could be as valuable as Joe Mauer. Before you laugh, think to yourself why you’re laughing? Because you think I’m dumb? That’s not very nice. 2012 Projections: 45/14/55/.260
17. Russell Martin – Technically, he should be ranked higher than this if he just repeats last year, but there’s the pickle juice that kills you. (Snopes confirmed!) Martin’s not repeating last year. If he gets 12 homers, I’ll run around my office naked. Though, I do work from home and don’t own clothes, so it’s not much of a bet. 2012 Projections: 50/10/60/.240/9
18. Jonathan Lucroy – When you look at Lucroy’s age (25), you think sexy. Yeah, he doesn’t look like anything other than a Yadier Molina clone, but — and like J. Lo this is a big but — Lucroy’s young enough to maybe fill out a little and add a few more homers. When you’re this deep, you go for upside and not for Molina. (Notice how I keep talking about Molina but have yet to rank him? That’ll all change soon.) 2012 Projections: 50/13/60/.260/3
19. Yadier Molina – Hey, is that Diego Rivera catching? No! Doc Ock? Nope! It’s the other Molina! Yeah, he’s boring as dog balls. If you draft Yadier Molina as your catcher, this tells me you don’t care enough to at least draft someone with some upside. Shame on you and the horse you rode in on. Beautiful horse, though. Very regal. You must watch Downton Abbey. 2012 Projections: 45/9/50/.280/5
20. Kurt Suzuki – Do me a favor and don’t draft him. How’s dem apples? Sour! Suzuki’s never hit more than 15 homers and hasn’t hit above .242 in two years. You’re expecting a miracle in a crappy lineup in a terrible ballpark? Maybe Hatteberg can come out of retirement and drive him in 120 times. You’d like that cause you need happy endings. Well, then go get a massage! 2012 Projections: 50/12/55/.240/3
After the top 20 catchers for 2012 fantasy baseball there’s a lot of names, but these two stand out:
Victor Martinez – He was originally ranked 6th, but now he has a torn ACL. What a debACLe! Oh, God, that is rich. Sounds like he’s gonna miss the whole season, unless you believe in mirACLes. Seriously, effin’ rich! 2012 Projections: nothing/but/doo/dee
Chris Iannetta – If I knew the Sciosciapath were definitely going to give Iannetta 500 plate appearances, I’d be more excited about drafting him. But what the hey?! It’s a catcher; I’ll still take a flyer and see where he goes. Something no one seems to talk about in their rankings. You could put “Undecided” ranked 12th on every list and still do fine as long as you don’t take “Undecided” for every position. Now if you were to draft “Undeclared” you’d be in trouble. I keed! Or do I? No, I do. To talk you out of drafting Iannetta, even though I think the point is to talk you into drafting him, he’s out of Coors and his home/away splits look like a mural made of turd. Turd, turd, turd, turd is the word! Damn, now that’s stuck in my head. Last three years — he’s hitting .171 in away games. Whatever, I don’t care if his away average is floating in the toilet waiting for someone to flush it like Lawrence Taylor’s post-football career. I placed him here to highlight him, but I’d rank him right above Arencibia because a flyer at catcher is fine. Turd, turd, turd, turd is the word! Now it’s stuck in your head too. Sucker! 2012 Projections: 55/16/65/.245/5
January 20, 2012 by: Grey Category:
2012 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers
January 18, 2012 by: Scott Evans 
